The losses of the Labour Party were due to its stance on the war in Gaza.
Readings: Hamza Ali, Progress Center for Policies
Elections were held in 107 local authorities in Britain, in a tough competition for 2,636 seats. Voters also cast their ballots for the Mayor of London and its council members, as well as for 10 other mayoral positions outside the capital. The Labour Party enjoyed victory in Blackpool South, the only by-election held, where a Conservative seat turned into a Labour one, winning nearly 60% of the votes. Overall, Conservative representation collapsed to its lowest level since 1998 in areas that voted in the local elections on the second Thursday of May, with the expectation that Conservatives would lose up to 500 seats when all votes were counted.
While the Labour Party made gains in key target areas, it did not reach its previous performance level in some regions, where independent candidates and the Green Party, which campaigned on environmental issues and the war on Gaza, made gains. As a warning sign to the Labour Party, the party suffered losses in several strongholds like Oldham and Blackburn. The leader of the Labour Party in the Oldham Council admitted that Gaza was a factor in the party’s loss of seats to independents in the area, which has a relatively large Muslim population. The Labour Party had previously controlled the council for 13 years.
The loss of Muslim votes was a concerning issue for the Labour Party. Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, says, “Labour’s strategy was to perform better in parts of the country they lost since 2016, specifically in the northern rural areas, which leaned Conservative in the previous parliamentary elections, which are predominantly white areas, but it seems they lost support in other areas…” They lost support and endorsement in areas with Muslim majorities and slightly declined in progressive working-class areas and major university cities. He concluded it amount to “progress at a cost.”
An analysis by Sky News shows that areas with less than 5% Muslim population witnessed a 1.1 percentage point increase in Labour’s share of the vote. But areas with over 20% Muslim population saw the Labour Party lose 17.9 percentage points of its vote share.
Independent and Green Party Advancements:
In the race for Mayor of West Midlands, the Labour Party narrowly defeated the Conservative candidate by just 0.3%, with the independent candidate securing 11% of the votes. Observers point out that a significant number of Muslims voted for the independent candidate instead of the Labour Party. But independent candidates were not the only ones who succeeded at the expense of the Labour Party. The Green Party also recorded significant success. The Greens became the largest party in Bristol City Council after winning 10 seats. The party increased its total council membership to 812, after gaining an additional 74 seats. Estimates suggest that the Green Party is making gains at the expense of the Labour Party’s electoral base after clarifying its social democratic program.
To illustrate the success of the Greens, in northernmost areas like Newcastle, Green councilors were elected for the first time after Labour saw a decline in support. The Green Party also became the largest party in the Hastings Borough Council. But in areas like Oxford, it also made gains at the expense of the Labour Party, showing it can win in both rural and urban areas. The co-leader of the party, Carla Denyer, said she is “really pleased” that the party has once again increased the total number of council members for the fifth consecutive election. Analysts noted that the party benefited from Labour voters’ disappointment due to its lack of a clear stance on public ownership of social services, as well as its stance on Gaza. Another factor was the Green Party’s call for an “immediate ceasefire” in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza about four months before Labour’s call, and the Greens also called for a ban on British arms sales to Israel. These political details are important, as the Labour Party has positioned itself closely to the Conservative Party with its support for big business, financial discipline, reduced government spending, and staunch support for Israel, making little effort to be bold in its policies. Now it seems that dissatisfied Labour voters may have alternatives to vote for in the elections. For this reason, strategists in the Labour Party suggest that the results are a sign of the risks the party may face nationwide in the general elections in the coming November.
Expectations for Labour Decline in Parliamentary General Election:
Based on the share of votes in English councils, forecasts and estimates for the upcoming general elections indicate that the Labour Party will win 294 seats and outperform the Conservatives – but it is 32 seats less than gaining an overall majority to form a single-party government. This figure is just an approximate indication and is based on the assumption that votes for nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, where local elections were not held, remain unchanged from the previous elections. However, more importantly, other parties, such as the Green Party and independents, are expected to get 22%. Analysts noted that the independents performed better in local elections, but replicating that in general elections will be challenging. Nevertheless, given the hesitation to vote for the Labour Party, this paves the way for other strong options like the Green Party in particular to gain more votes.
Final assessment and conclusions::
While the Conservatives’ prospects appear bleak, the Labour Party does not benefit directly to the extent they would like. With the importance of issues like Gaza, and the fact that communities like Muslims and progressives in general and youth are distancing themselves from the Labour Party, there is a chance for the Green Party in particular to make tangible progress. Election experts say that the Green Party has now become a good voting option for many people: environmentalists, progressives, Muslims, protesting voters, and economically struggling individuals who have been on the rise since Britain’s exit from the European Union and the British active participation in the Ukrainian war.
