Ameer Makhoul, Progress Arab Polices Centre
There has been a profound shift in the Israeli mentality after October 7, not limited to the far-right, towards political transition based on hatred towards Palestinians and Arabs, and the legitimisation of the idea of expulsion and displacement from Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and within the “Green Line”. This mentality has taken hold of significant portions of the main stream as well as Centre-right, as well as “civil society” institutions such as universities, unions, the Israeli BAR, the judiciary, service and operational facilities, public opinion and the media. This mentality provides fertile ground for the continuous rise in popularity of Ben Gvir, whose populist rhetoric may potentially see his party competing for the second or third position in the Knesset in the coming years.
Maariv newspaper survey of February 9, 2024, indicated shifts in the both Israeli political map and public opinion. Firstly, it charted the rise of Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir and his “Jewish Power” party, with Kahanistic values of advocating ethnic cleansing from all of historical Palestine; secondly, it showed the beginning of a decline in the strength of the “State Camp”Party led by Benny Gantz, losing 4 seats to reach 36, thereby bolstering the coalition bloc by two seats and narrowing the gap between the current opposition parties. The result regarding suitability for prime minister has not changed, as surveys give Netanyahu 32% compared to 48% for Gantz, including about a quarter of Likud voters who see Netanyahu as a burden on their party. Some consider the State Camp as a polling bubble, unqualified in reality, especially given that the contours of the political map are unclear, as new alignments and new players may enter the political arena.
There are also indications that the popular base of the far-right government has begun to “occupy the streets” of Israel under the banner of military escalation and preventing humanitarian aid to Gaza. This represents a considerable counterweight to the widely protest movement, as well as the families of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, demanding quick Knesset elections.
According to the aforementioned survey, Likud lost one seat from the previous week to 17 seats, with a continued shift within the right-wing bloc from Likud to the parties of Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Even within those far-right parties themselves, after October 7, accusations against Ben Gvir have intensified, holding him responsible for state failures, referring to his policies regarding prisoners, Jerusalem, and the Al-Aqsa Mosque. His party’s strength according to surveys is limited to four seats in the Knesset out of 120, while according to the latest Maariv survey, his strength has doubled with a significant portion stemming from the shift of Likud supporters towards this extremist wing, which seeks to distinguish itself from religious Zionism led by Smotrich..
In March 2023, Ben Gvir brazenly addressed Netanyahu saying, “Mr. Prime Minister, if you want to get rid of us, let’s see you do it.” Israeli media and public opinion have devoted dozens of headlines to the fate of Netanyahu, linking it to Ben Gvir, who has threatened numerous times to leave the ruling coalition and sometimes has succeeded in blackmailing Netanyahu. For Ben Gvir, his increasing political power is a positive indicator but does guarantee his standing in the event of a change in the ruling coalition, since the opposition bloc, according to polls, has become stronger with a tangible margin.
Estimates during nine months of protests against constitutional changes indicated that the issue did not concern religious Zionist and Jewish extremist currents. Instead, both parties sought their own goals: Smotrich’s “Conquest Plan”, backed by the rulings of Jewish religious rabbis whose creed is the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the West Bank and its Judaisation as part of the “Judea and Samaria” framework, while Ben Gvir seeks to escalate the situation in Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa Mosque, the prisons as well as Palstinian citizins of Israel. The war on Gaza served as the best context for the pursuit of their goals. Their secondary motive was to reach the helm of power, and until then, consolidate their political weight, seeking to infiltrate the ranks of Likud and religious parties (Haredi), to the extent that the “Srugim” website for religious Zionism in spring 2022 dubbed Ben Gvir as the “next Prime Minister” when he refused government instructions and organised a march to the Al-Aqsa sanctuary, defying the government’s decision and the recommendations of the security establishment and the army.
In recent weeks, following his growing popularity, the Israeli media discourse has shifted away from dealing with Ben Gvir as a “problem”. The media tended to consider him one of the causes of the failure of October 7, causing his popularity to drop according to polls to four seats, but the media has since changed its tone after subsequent polls and began seriously talking about him as someone determining the government’s position, with the possibility of his assumption of the PM after Netanyahu’s government falls, with Gantz ruling for a limited period. These readings have relied on the transformations in Israeli public mentality over the past four months since October 7th..
With his practices and slogans, Ben Gvir has become more palatable to the right-wing and even the Jewish religious street. The establishment of about 1000 of “Alert Units” in most Israeli towns, providing them with weapons and training, as well as leading the campaign to prevent humanitarian aid from entering Gaza and closing the Kerem Shalom/Karem Abu Salem crossing, and the resettlement plan for Gaza, his attacks on the Israeli army leadership, and his firm stance on continuing the war. All these and more have earned him unprecedented popular support and a level of influence he did not previously enjoy in the Israeli government, making him, according to several estimates, one of its most influential ministers.
Ben Gvir surpasses the Likud ministers and religious party members who seek to stop the shift among their supporters towards the far-right, revealing these efforts to be in vain. This rise of Gvir’s strand of Zionism is exemplified in Minister Miri Regev’s statement that “the same as we received a blow during the Simchat Torah holiday, we are certainly obligated to reciprocate and not be more merciful than them during Ramadan”..