Decline of Arab Political Parties, Advancement of Religious Jews, and Coalitions in Coastal Cities
By Amir Makhoul, Researcher at the Progress Center for Policies
Position Assessment Summary
Introduction: Local and municipal elections were held except in border towns in the north and south, where residents are still displaced by state orders, on February 27, 2024, and the runoff elections for the mayoral elections undecided in the first round were held on March 10, 2024.
Analysis:
These elections typically do not necessarily reflect the political situation or party weighting due to the intertwining of local, regional, identity-based, sectarian, and even personal factors in shaping people’s views. However, attention can be drawn to some notable aspects: the elections in Palestinian Arab towns within Israel, which witnessed numerous fluctuations indicating a decline in the influence of parties and political movements, in favor of various non-political local social forces. This may affect the identity of institutional representative entities for this audience, as local authorities and their leaders constitute a fundamental composition in organizations which play a significant role in constituting the community identity despite Israeli challenges, specifically the High Follow-up Committee for Arab Citizens of Israel, and the Committee of Arab Local Authorities.
Conversely, the trend of decline in sectarianism in municipal elections, usually characterized by competition between two central camps, each aligned around small families, widened the scope of voting based on the capacities and personal qualifications of candidates regardless of social or even partisan affiliations. Jaafar Farah, Director of the Equal Rights Center, confirms this trend with “the decline of parties and political movement and the decline of sectarianism and loss of trust in public policy.” Moreover, with the organized crime system seeking to impose its control over Arab local governance, elections witnessed a popular shift towards civil peace, reflected in agreements in some towns to support a single candidate or the withdrawal of one candidate for another, and the sharing of the presidency through rotation rather than competition. Several candidates decided not to run beforehand, and the trend of electing candidates based on personal qualifications rather than regional affiliations may enhance social fabric and individual status in efforts to bolster collective status.
In Israel, the fiercest conflict was in towns with a Jewish-religious character, where significant gains were made by ultra-Orthodox parties, especially the Shas Party for Jews of North African origin, and even the Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich), contrasting with the failure of the Jewish Power Party (Ben-Gvir) according to its pre-election expectations. Moreover, right-wing parties, Likud and Haredim, achieved their success in leading the municipality of Jerusalem, a consistent trend over the past two decades.
For the first time, the elections saw participation from the protest movement against the judicial coup and those advocating for accelerating Knesset elections, achieving tangible accomplishments in 26 municipal authorities.
Coastal and Mixed Cities: Coastal and mixed cities, including Acre, Haifa, Lod, Ramla, Tel Aviv-Yaffa, Be’er Sheva, and “Nof Hagalil” (adjacent to Nazareth, established in the 1950s as part of the Judaization plan of the north and Galilee, with only around a quarter of its population now Palestinian Arabs), witnessed political alignments that may be crucial in forecasting the future. The alignment of right-wing parties, including Likud, Religious Zionism, and Jewish Power, alongside local forces in favor of a particular candidate, contrasts with forces concerned with maintaining a more liberal character in these cities. Some cities openly addressed the Palestinian Arab public and sought its support for municipal leadership against local coalition agreements, while others refrained from doing so, fearing incitement by right-wing blocs against them. As a result, except for Ramla, Jewish Power and its coalition failed in most of these cities, indicating a general failure of the racist right-wing alignment.
In most of these cities, elected mayors sought to include representatives of the Palestinian Arab community in the ruling coalition despite the incitement campaign against this community preceding the elections and the efforts to intimidate Jewish voters into turning away from such candidates. Mina Tzemach, a prominent statistician and pollster, indicates the growing phenomenon of the rational voter and its widening scope in Israeli society despite the war and the resulting incendiary and populist rhetoric. Additionally, the success of segments of the Jewish protest movement is also an indicator in this direction.
Forming coalitions with representatives of the Palestinian Arab community is an indication that the historical and renewed presence of the Palestinian Arab in coastal and mixed cities cannot be overlooked. Anyone seeking to compete with the Israeli right-wing has no alternative but to turn to the Arab vote, recognizing that the strength of Arab representation in elected bodies stems from the strength and presence of this community. In some cases, as the city of “Nof Hagalil” where all Arab national forces were unified, significant achievements were made, with an increase in the number of representatives and political influence.
Conclusion: The model seen in coastal and mixed cities could serve to indicate that unifying the Palestinian Arab vote could be decisive in Knesset elections as well, whether through a single list or coordinated lists. Moreover, the strengthening of liberal forces in these cities indicates a conviction in the centrality of the Arab vote and the demographic and legitimate Arab presence that cannot be bypassed or diminished, despite official intimidation campaigns and the policy of silencing this community’s voice during the war on Gaza and the entire Palestinian people. This system of suppressing the protest voices among Palestinian Arabs in Israel is not invincible, and its demise is a matter of time. Ultimately, putting an end to this system is a crucial touchstone for those who fall victim to it.