Position Paper, Hamza Ali, Researcher at the Center for Progress Policies
Introduction:
In a surprising move, British Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a general election will be held in the United Kingdom on July 4th, ahead of its scheduled date. In 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, achieved a stunning victory in the general election, with the rival Labour Party suffering one of its worst defeats in history. The result was quickly deemed as something that would take the Labour Party at least a decade to overcome. Now, Keir Starmer leads Labour into the election, and it is expected that he will become the next Prime Minister.
Polls Indicate a Clear Labour Lead:
Reliable opinion polls suggest that the Labour Party will win a convincing majority in July, with the party leading by 20 points over its main rival, which could be enough for a sweeping victory. In recent local elections, Labour secured strong wins, and the trajectory of the polls remains upward, with expectations that it will defeat the Conservatives in various regions. The party under Sunak is facing its biggest poll decline since 1997. This is the first Conservative government to trail Labour in the economy since that time. The Labour opposition, led by Starmer, is favored by the public on all major issues for the first time in nearly two decades. The proportion of voters saying “it’s time for a change” is the highest since 1997. The current government is also the least popular in two decades. However, a recent analysis by The Guardian shows that fewer voters believe Labour is fit to govern compared to 2014, and fewer think it is performing well.
Since the early days of his leadership, Starmer has abandoned all his progressive policies and pledges, such as abolishing tuition fee loans, increasing income tax on the top 5% of earners, and returning public ownership of railways, mail, water, and energy. He also promised to spend £28 billion annually on green investment but has retreated from key promises to improve workers’ rights. He moved from promising to protect free movement after Brexit to insisting that a future Labour government would not even accept a return to the European customs union. Analysts say there are not many differences in economic and social policies between the two main parties, as Starmer has shifted Labour to the center and center-right, benefiting from the concern and anger of the white middle classes towards the Conservatives, which is expected to work in Labour’s favor.
Background:
Between 2017 and 2019, the Conservatives invaded traditional Labour strongholds in industrial areas, weakened by the party’s policy of colluding with large-scale manufacturing relocation outside the UK to double profits. Their stance in favor of Brexit, despite the party’s division on this issue, pushed a large bloc of workers to vote vindictively for the Conservatives.
Under its current leadership, Labour has set a central goal in its current electoral strategy to regain its traditional constituencies. Recent opinion polls and the results of local elections held this month indicate a return of a broad bloc of angry Labour voters to support the party.
Around London, there are a total of 100 constituencies. These constituencies, consisting of wealthy and prosperous towns and villages, have historically been safe and guaranteed for the Conservatives. With increasing discord between this affluent class and the Conservative Party, many of these seats will be competitive for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. These areas have been significantly affected by the mortgage crisis, and thus are likely to vote against the government that approved raising interest rates as a means to reduce inflation. The Liberal Democrats’ share has been relatively stable at around 10% on average in polls, but they hope to achieve electoral gains by focusing on their targeted seats. They have already won some seats from the Conservatives in several constituencies in by-elections and recent local elections. The Liberals made gains in traditionally Conservative voting areas in southern England, known as the “Blue Wall.” They recently announced they would focus heavily on 80 key Conservative seats in the election as they seek to build on this momentum.
Therefore, estimates indicate that even if Labour does not take these seats from the Conservatives, it is very likely that the Liberal Democrats will. Tactical voting is expected, with parties agreeing to work together to ensure the Conservatives’ ousting. In 1997, in some constituencies, many Liberal Democrat supporters backed Labour, while Labour supporters backed the Liberal Democrats, and similar patterns are expected this time.
Scotland and Wales, Tilting the Balance in Labour’s Favor:
Recent opinion polls indicate that the Labour Party is ahead of the Scottish National Party (SNP) for the first time since before the 2014 independence referendum. The latest data from YouGov, the government polling agency, shows Labour leading by 10 points. After recently changing its leaders, the SNP is contesting the elections in an unstable position. Analysts suggest that Labour could win up to 30 of Scotland’s 57 seats in Westminster.
In Wales, the Labour Party is expected to make significant gains in the general election, while the Conservatives face an almost certain defeat. Although Labour has long been the dominant party in Wales, it won only 22 of the 40 seats in 2019, with the Conservatives returning 14 seats to Parliament. Labour is expected to regain a leading position in this region.
Other Factors:
Immigration: Analysts indicate that this election may see votes cast on local issues rather than general policies more than ever before. The Reform Party, formerly the Brexit Party, is looking to gain seats from the Conservatives by prioritizing issues like immigration. Their campaign has already been announced and is called the “Stop Immigration Campaign.”
Gaza: Simultaneously, the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza is expected to play a crucial role in the voting trends of a wide segment of voters. Both Labour and the Conservatives have unconditionally supported Israel throughout its war on Gaza, despite a significant portion of British public opinion favoring a ceasefire and suspending arms sales to Israel. Consequently, many independent candidates will stand against Labour to send a message that the party should be punished for its support of the genocide and its refusal to call for an early ceasefire. Prominent Labour politicians, such as leader Keir Starmer and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, will face independent candidates running on the Gaza issue. Starmer will run against South African Jewish anti-apartheid activist Andrew Feinstein, who served under Nelson Mandela, while Streeting will face British-Palestinian activist and refugee from Lebanon camps, Lian Mohammed. There will be numerous seats across the country where independent candidates will be the voice for Gaza. Areas with high numbers of students or Muslims will play a significant role in electing independent candidates against Labour candidates.
The Greens: Indifference and frustration, not only regarding Gaza but also concerning the general state of the two main parties, will make the Green Party a major beneficiary of the crisis. After achieving its best results in recent local elections and winning a record number of council seats, the Green Party now enjoys about 10% national support. The UK electoral system puts them at a disadvantage in securing a good number of seats, but they seem ready to build on their single current MP, who won in Bristol Central, where they lead Labour in the polls.
The Green Party’s stance on the Gaza war has been clear from the start, calling for an immediate ceasefire and supporting the suspension of arms sales to Israel. They also offer a climate agenda and progressive social policies not provided by the main parties. Observers note that, like independent candidates, they will attract many votes. Experts indicate that the Greens will likely gain support from environmentalists, progressives, students, and the Muslim community.
Summary:
• The Conservatives are widely expected to lose seats in several constituencies, including their traditional strongholds, with low expectations for their re-election.
• Polls indicate a significant lead for the Labour Party across the UK, enabling them to secure enough seats to form a ruling majority.
• Despite Labour leader Starmer being an uncharismatic and unpopular figure with conservative and hesitant policies, he is seen as the lesser of two evils.
• The Liberal Democrats are expected to improve their representation in traditionally Conservative areas.
• Issues like Gaza are expected to feature prominently, with independent candidates and the Green Party likely to win seats at Labour’s expense, as large segments of angry voters mobilize to punish Labour for its positions. This is expected to occur particularly in London, the Midlands, and Northern England, which have significant numbers of Muslim voters and students.