On the Eve of the British Elections: Fragmentation of the Party Scene Despite Significant Labour Lead

By capadmin On Jun 24, 2024

By Hamza Ali, Researcher at the Center for Progressive Policies

Situation Assessment Summary:

A close examination of the electoral program presented by the British Labour Party shows a clear inclination to steer the party towards the right. This observation has prompted the Green Party to direct its electoral statement towards Labour’s left-wing voter base. The Labour Party’s electoral program can be summarized as follows:

Economic and Financial Aspects:

The electoral program lacks clarity and does not address the concerns of those looking for improvements in their deteriorating living standards after a difficult period of impoverishment experienced by the middle class and increasing poverty among the working classes under the Conservative government. The promised increases in public service budgets appear minimal and insignificant.
The proposed tax increases are far from addressing the major issues of tax evasion.
There is no clear and specific vision regarding public spending, despite Labour’s continuous diagnosis of deep-rooted problems such as poverty, homelessness, higher education funding, elderly social care, local government funding, pensions, and much more.
The manifesto offers promises without clear implementation mechanisms, such as stopping the rise in debt, halting tax increases on workers, income tax, or national insurance, or the inconsistencies in corporate tax rates. The announced tax increases include expanding the windfall tax on energy company profits, imposing VAT on private school fees, and ensuring proper taxation on private equity returns.
A government institute indicated that raising GDP growth is not a quick task. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is unlikely to raise growth forecasts in the near term before the next financial event later this year. This means that shortly after coming to power, a Labour government will face an unenviable choice between sticking to electoral promises or implementing a parliamentary-approved spending cut plan, or resorting to breaking or changing financial rules to raise resources.
The former head of the Labour Party’s policy unit under Jeremy Corbyn said the manifesto amounts to a return to austerity. Overall, the spending plans in Labour’s manifesto represent an increase in public spending of about 0.2% of GDP. This is less than the amount promised by both the Liberal Democrats (0.8%) and the Conservatives (0.6%).
Green Party Targets Labour’s Base:

The Labour Party’s electoral manifesto makes the first year of its government extremely difficult. It will not take long for its shortcomings to be exposed to its audience and electoral promises. The Green Party quickly seized Labour’s predicament, presenting a bold and progressive electoral program. The Greens did not hesitate to address the issues avoided by others, such as:
Imposing progressive taxes on the wealthiest companies and individuals with assets of £10 million or more, increasing national insurance, and aligning capital gains tax rates with income.
The Green Party’s electoral program aims to address the “economy where most people work harder but become poorer.” Additionally, it plans to invest in skills training.
Their proposals also include a £15 minimum wage, improved workers’ rights, and a four-day workweek.
Ultimately, the Greens promised a range of left-leaning policies such as wealth taxes, the abolition of university tuition fees, the re-nationalization of utility companies, and defending the National Health Service against the “creeping privatization” of the healthcare sector, embracing historical Labour proposals.
In contrast to the Greens’ proposals to halt increases in military spending, the Labour Party proposes increasing defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, aligning with the current government’s goal but without providing a timeframe. The Labour manifesto emphasized a “firm commitment” to NATO and the UK’s nuclear deterrent, a clear departure from the left-wing stance of former leader Jeremy Corbyn.
The War on Gaza and Labour’s Confusion:

The Labour Party pledged to recognize the Palestinian state before the end of peace talks, considering it an “inalienable right of the Palestinian people.” The manifesto stated that the “neighboring state” – referring to Israel – should not have the right to object to the recognition of the Palestinian state. It also mentioned a commitment to recognizing the Palestinian state as part of a renewed peace process leading to a two-state solution with Israel and a viable, sovereign Palestinian state living in security alongside it. Regarding the war in Gaza, the Labour manifesto confirmed it would continue to press for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and respect for the law.
The Green Party took a more progressive stance than Labour on several issues: avoiding the repetition of the two-state solution advocated by both major parties in the country and proposing a “permanent political solution that guarantees security and peace for Israelis and Palestinians.” They explicitly called for intensifying international efforts to end the illegal occupation of Palestinian territories, reinstating funding for UNRWA, and supporting South Africa’s referral of Israeli leaders to the International Court of Justice. They also called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a halt to arms sales to Israel.
Conclusions and Inferences:

Estimates suggest that the largest parliamentary bloc will be Labour, but a significant bloc of MPs, parliamentary aides, and independent opponents will be the biggest source of irritation for Keir Starmer and his government, more than others. This means that the biggest parliamentary pressure will come from the left, not the right.
Given the inability of this troublesome opposition bloc to influence legislation, their only role will be to rally external opposition, which scares Starmer and his advisor Rachel Reeves from the first day of governance, especially regarding issues like immigration or taxes.
The Green Party’s electoral manifesto is full of policies designed to attract left-leaning voters disillusioned with Labour.
The clear and immediate flashpoint: the Israeli war on Gaza. Gaza might be the first battle, as reported by the Financial Times. Starmer will face calls to recognize Palestine before Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and to halt arms sales to Israel. Although these voices will not be binding for his government, he will not want an early major rebellion, especially if the devastating scenes continue for a longer period.
Ultimately, Labour’s victory without radical ideas and a plan will leave a political vacuum and allow the entire traditional political narrative to shift. The Greens are positioning themselves as a key driver of this shift to the left, while the strong entry of the far-right nationalist Reform Party is impacting the Conservatives, with some pessimistic polls predicting they won’t exceed 50 seats out of 650.