The British Labour Party is losing its social democratic essence: Despite being on course to win the parliamentary elections:

Policy Paper: Hamza Ali, Researcher at the Progress Centre for Policies

Introduction:

In what is known as the centre-left of British politics, current Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is striving to show voters that the Labour Party is ready to take power in the upcoming July elections. The unremarkable and talentless leader took over in 2020, pledging to win back voters who turned away from the party during Corbyn’s era and to rectify the internal organizational and political situation. Since then, he has made it his central mission to reshape the party’s image and steer it to the right with all his might, believing it to be his historical opportunity to exploit the internal crisis engulfing the Conservative Party, led by a man of color with Indian origins.

Several measures taken by the Labour Party leadership to bolster the shift to the right can be observed:

Purging Left-Wing Candidates: Last week, Labour engaged in what the Financial Times described as a “purge” within the party, preventing many left-wing candidates from running and reserving a selection of safe seats for loyalists.

Banning Diane Abbott: The veteran leftist MP was barred from standing for Labour in the next election. She was suspended in April last year for writing a letter to The Observer suggesting that Jewish people do not face the same racism as some other minorities. Despite apologizing and the investigation concluding in December, Starmer insisted on preventing her from running in her Hackney North and Stoke Newington constituency, where she has been an MP for nearly 37 years. After an outcry from activists, the media, and the public, it was confirmed on Tuesday, May 4, that Abbott would be allowed to return and run for Labour. Observers noted that the party leadership was forced into an embarrassing U-turn, as her marginalization and exclusion were obvious.

Excluding Faiza Shaheen: The National Executive Committee informed left-wing economist and inequality activist Faiza Shaheen that she would no longer be the party’s candidate in Chingford and Woodford Green, currently held by former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith. One reason for her exclusion was her liking of a tweet several years ago referring to the “Israeli lobby” influencing UK policy.
Selecting Right-Leaning Candidates: Overnight, the party announced a new round of selections for MPs allowed to run for parliament. Among them were Josh Simons, a research centre director close to the party leadership, and Luke Akehurst, a key member of Labour’s National Executive Committee and director of “We Believe in Israel,” a pro-Israel lobbying group. Akehurst previously worked at BICOM and the arms industry.

Marginalizing Corbyn’s Legacy: The grassroots movement formed during Corbyn’s leadership claimed that the informal exclusion of some left-wing parliamentary candidates and the introduction of right-leaning individuals amounted to a purge. This follows the announcement that former leader Jeremy Corbyn would not run in the next election under Labour and would stand as an independent.

Policy Shifts: Analysts note that these actions send a clear message about the nature of Starmer’s leadership if he becomes Prime Minister and the type of policies he would adopt. Notably, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby within the party and the sidelining or provocation of those who publicly criticized Israel during its genocidal war in Gaza.

Position on Gaza: The Labour Party’s hesitance to call for a ceasefire and its refusal to support an arms sales ban to Israel send a political message to voters. It appears to be an attempt to attract right-leaning voters discontent with the policies of the Conservative government in recent years.
Abandoning Progressive Policies: Aligning with the political path aimed at dismantling the leftist policies adopted under Corbyn’s leadership, Starmer has abandoned all progressive policies and commitments, such as the plan to abolish university tuition fees, increase income tax on the top 5% of earners, and bring public ownership back to railways, mail, water, and energy. Labour has a “financial credibility rule” committing the party to eliminate the current spending deficit during its first term in office.

Maintaining Financial Commitments: To achieve financial balance by maintaining or even increasing current spending levels along with substantial tax increases, Labour has pledged not to raise taxes and will not impose new wealth taxes.

Abandoning Green Investment Promises: Starmer also abandoned a pledge to spend £28 billion annually on green investment and reconsidered a key policy to improve workers’ rights.
Brexit Stance: Moving from a promise to protect freedom of movement post-Brexit to insisting that a Labour government would not even accept rejoining the customs union.

In summary, analysts predict that there is little difference left between the programs of the two main parties. Ironically, Labour leaders believe that aligning with Conservative policies in social and economic areas will benefit Labour electorally. Most polls indicate Labour leads by an average of 20% over the Conservatives, with some suggesting Labour may be heading for a landslide victory akin to 1997’s overwhelming majority.

However, some aspects could impact the elections. The ongoing genocide in Gaza is expected to play a crucial role in guiding sectors of the electorate. Both Labour and the Conservatives have supported Israel unconditionally throughout its war on Gaza, despite a significant portion of British public opinion supporting a ceasefire and suspending arms sales to Israel. Consequently, many independent candidates are expected to stand against Labour to send a message that Labour must be punished for its support of the genocide and refusal to back an early ceasefire. The Economist revealed that Labour’s election strategy website is directing activists to constituencies considered crucial and at risk, despite having a majority of over 25% in 2019. Many of these constituencies have a significant proportion of Indian, Pakistani, or Bangladeshi Muslims, making up about 30% of their population, indicating widespread discontent with Labour among the Muslim community.

In the recent local elections, an analysis by Sky News showed that areas with more than 20% Muslim population saw Labour lose 17.9 percentage points of its vote share. This apathy and frustration are not just about Gaza but also relate to the general policies of the two main parties. Estimates indicate that the Green Party, which has shifted its focus in recent years from environmental and climate issues to social democracy, justice, and the social market, will benefit most from Labour’s abandonment of its social democratic core. This is especially true among young people. After achieving its best results in a long time in the recent local elections and a record number of council members, the Green Party now garners about 10% national support. Yet, the UK’s electoral system does not place them in a position to alter the historic polarization between the two main parties. Nonetheless, election experts predict that the Green Party will become a good voting option for many: environmentalists, progressives, Muslims, protest voters, and individuals facing economic hardship.

Conclusion:

– Labour is performing strongly in polls and appears poised to take the place of the Conservatives in government after 14 years of waiting.
– Under its current leadership, Labour’s shift to the centre-right and the change in social democratic ideology, similar to what happened with Tony Blair in 1997, indicate how the party will govern and suggest that the Conservative Party’s failed attempts to save the country from its crisis will not be resolved by Labour.
– However, the ongoing transformations within the party, amounting to self-sabotage, will lead Labour to decline and lose popularity among the youth and a significant portion of voters who will gradually seek political representation elsewhere, as social democratic parties have lost their progressive essence not only in Britain but across Europe.