Extraordinary Summit of IGAD Heads of State on the War in Sudan: Power Centres within the Army Threaten Summit Decisions

By capadmin On Dec 16, 2023

Zaelnoon Suliman
Progress Centre For Policies

Position Assessment

Introduction

The 41st Extraordinary Assembly of the International Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Heads of State and Government was held on Saturday, December 9, 2023, in Djibouti, dedicated to discussing the situation in Sudan. The meeting was chaired by Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti and President of the Heads of State and Government of the IGAD. The assembly was attended by Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of the Republic of Ethiopia; William Ruto, President of the Republic of Kenya; Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia; Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council of the Republic of Sudan. Also present were James Bettia Morgan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Republic of South Sudan; Bamulangaki Sempijja, Minister of Defense and Veterans Affairs in the Republic of Uganda. Among the attendees were also Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of the International Governmental Authority on Development; Moussa Faki Mohamed, Chairman of the African Union Commission; Ramtan Lamamra, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations to Sudan; Ambassador Faisal bin Sultan Al Qublan, Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the Republic of Djibouti; Ambassador Michael Hammer, U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa; Silvie Tabi, EU Ambassador to Djibouti and IGAD; and Ambassador Ismael Wais, Special Envoy of the International Governmental Authority on Development to South Sudan.
• The summit ruled out a military solution to the current crisis in Sudan, emphasising that dialogue and peaceful discussions are the only way forward for a stable, united, and democratic Sudan.
• Both the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, affirmed their unequivocal commitment to an unconditional ceasefire and conflict resolution through political dialogue. They agreed to the assembly’s proposal to hold a direct meeting facilitated by the IGAD.
• The summit welcomed the humanitarian aid agreement signed by the conflicting parties in Jeddah on November 7, 2023, as well as the agreed-upon confidence-building measures and the subsequent steps towards implementation. The parties were urged to respect and adhere to their agreement.
• The meeting condemned unjustified interventions in the Sudanese conflict by external actors, both governmental and non-governmental, urging them to refrain from providing any of the conflicting parties with military equipment.
• The summit called for the unification of efforts within the framework led by the IGAD and the African Union to establish a unified and coordinated path for peace within the IGAD roadmap, continuing to secure support from the African Union Peace and Security Council and the United Nations Security Council.
• The summit called for a unified mediation process based on African efforts, coordinating various national, regional, continental, and international efforts under the auspices of the IGAD and the African Union.
• The IGAD summit committed to supporting a comprehensive political process led by civilians, clarifying the nature and structure of Sudanese society and governance, and hastening efforts to organize a comprehensive civil dialogue facilitated by IGAD and the African Union, led by Sudan, with the goal of formulating a national consensus conducive to a civilian-led transitional process culminating in open, transparent, and democratic elections.
• The summit agreed to establish a framework consisting of diplomatic and political figures nominated by the heads of state of the IGAD to undertake mediation efforts in Sudan.
• A special envoy for the IGAD was appointed to coordinate and lead mediation efforts according to the roadmap for the peace process in Sudan.

Analysis

The 41st extraordinary summit was convened following a meeting between the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council and the Sudanese Army Commander, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Kenyan President, William Ruto, in October last year in Nairobi. During this meeting, al-Burhan removed his previous reservations regarding the IGAD’s political solution proposals and Kenya’s presidency of the IGAD Quartet mechanism on Sudan. They agreed to convene an emergency summit of IGAD Heads of State to discuss the cessation of war in Sudan.
The summit was convened following the suspension of the Jeddah platform due to its failure to achieve a partial ceasefire and build trust between the conflicting parties. It offers a glimmer of hope to halting the armed conflict in Sudan, classified as one of the worst according to data and reports from international organisations. The summit supports the IGAD organisational roadmap for a political solution, which advocates the unification of platforms and initiatives, integrating the vision of the Jeddah platform and IGAD proposals into a matrix of measures leading to a permanent ceasefire and the transition of power from the military to civilians. This includes achieving a permanent ceasefire, transforming Khartoum into a demilitarized capital, relocating the forces of both parties to assembly centres 50 kilometres away from Khartoum, and deploying African forces to guard strategic institutions in the capital.
In an expected move, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry, in a statement, backtracked on the commitments agreed upon by al-Burhan during the meeting of the heads of the African Development Authority, as outlined in the final statement of the extraordinary summit. The Ministry mentioned that the statement included points that had not been mutually agreed upon, such as: al-Burhan’s conditions specifying that his meeting with Hemeti should take place only after a permanent ceasefire is established; the withdrawal of the Rapid Support Forces from the capital and their assembly in areas outside it; the disparity between the approach to the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The Ministry emphasised that the political process should include both conflicting parties (Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces), in addition to Sudanese civil society.

Many observers believe that the Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s statement repeats the previous Islamist stance towards the IGAD initiative and its threatened proposals for a solution, jeopardising their presence in both the military and civilian apparatus of the state. This stance is seen as conflicting with their political and economic interests, echoing their previous positions on the Jeddah platform and all previous political solution efforts for the war, conducted by the Quartet mechanism (Britain, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the UAE) and the Triple mechanism (IGAD, the African Union, and the UN mission).
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s statement may indicate an ongoing conflict within power centres between the political solution and factions favouring a decisive military approach. This is represented by the army’s leader, al-Burhan, and his deputy, Shams al-Din al-Kabbashi, on one side, and, on the other side, the third man in the army, Yasser al-Atta, supported by Islamists within the military and security institutions. Another assumption is that al-Burhan aims to buy time by strategically positioning himself in various forums and maintaining ambiguous positions within his government. This aligns with a security-war strategy aiming to entangle the Rapid Support Forces in internal conflicts among its ranks, subjecting it to internal and external sieges, and continuing the attrition war against it to weaken and eventually eliminate it or change the military balance. This strategy is especially pertinent following its recent defeats in western Sudan and Khartoum, and the advance of the Rapid Support Forces towards the central and northern regions, which aims to strengthen the negotiating position of the army.

Summary
• Despite the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese civil society welcoming the summit’s outcomes, and their declaration of readiness to work according to the provisions of their final statement, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s statement threatens the political solution efforts with failure, indicating a possible continuation of the armed conflict in a more intense form.
• After the scenes following the Djibouti summit, it is clear that the war parties take decisive military action to be their immediate preference. Numerous reports confirm the army and the Rapid Support Forces’ recruitment of new fighters, the arrival of new weapons and equipment, and new deployments to the battlefield. This explains the previous negotiation rounds as a strategy to buy time in imposing their political agenda by force of arms, along with all the humanitarian consequences and its impact on Sudan’s unity and regional stability.
• The Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s statement, which undermines al-Burhan’s positions, indicates that the Islamist movement led by Ali Karti now controls the state’s mechanisms and what remains of the army. In obstructing the efforts for a political solution and ceasefire, they send a message to Sudanese, regional, and international powers that they are an essential and active part of Sudan’s upcoming political framework. Excluding them means the continuation of war and possibly the country’s division.
• With these options, the Rapid Support Forces, which dominate most areas of Khartoum and the western and southeast states, will have no choice but to form civilian administrations or a parallel government against al-Burhan’s authority, managed from its new capital, Port Sudan. This will practically place Sudan under two conflicting authorities, threatening its unity and the safety and stability of its communities due to the risks of civil war and hunger in the ongoing battles for legitimacy and the continual power struggles between the warring factions